Prospect analysis of the toy industry: What is the important driving force for the growth of consumption in the toy industry in the future?
my country is a big exporter of toys. About 75% of the world's toys are produced in China. The development of the domestic toy market is affected to a certain extent by the prosperity of the global toy industry. From the perspective of the global market size, due to currency depreciation, economic downturn and other factors, the growth rate of the toy industry has slowed down, maintaining a growth rate of 2%-4%; specifically, mature toy markets such as North America and Western Europe are highly saturated. The growth is slow, and the growth rate is lower than the average level; while the emerging toy markets such as Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe have grown rapidly due to the increase in residents' income and the growth of toy consumption expenditures, and have gradually become the main driving force for the growth of the toy industry.
With the development of the global toy market, my country’s toy exports have also steadily increased. In 2017, my country’s toy exports reached 23.9 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 28% year-on-year. It is an important toy exporter in the world; Domestic toy exports are mainly concentrated in the five major provinces and cities of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Fujian. Among them, Guangdong Province’s exports accounted for 67.39%, which is the province with the largest domestic toy exports. Generally speaking, due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the external demand market, rising domestic production costs, changes in the RMB exchange rate, etc., and my country’s toy exports are dominated by OEMs, the added value of products is low, and it is affected by upstream brands, designers, and downstream channels. The impact of end-to-end products is obvious, and the domestic toy export market is facing many pressures. However, at this stage, the growth rate of my country's toy exports is significantly faster than the growth rate of the global toy market. The demand for domestic toys in foreign markets is still increasing. The capacity and market accumulated in the early stage will help the toy export business continue to grow under pressure.
The terminal consumer groups of domestic toys mainly face children aged 0-12. On the one hand, as our country moves from family planning to policy adjustments to full second-children, the policy end gradually Liberalize the fertility policy; on the other hand, the current stage is the echo period of the third baby boom. The population born in the last round of population peak is at a suitable age for fertility, and the combination of two forces is expected to bring a new round of population peak. , Industries related to newborns and toddlers will be the first to benefit, and the toy industry is expected to carry a demographic dividend to increase the end consumer group. Specifically, starting from 2011, with the exception of a slight decline in 2015, the number of newborns has continued to grow; 2016 was the first year of the implementation of the comprehensive second-child policy, with 17.86 million new births, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. Newborn babies will become an important driving force for the growth of consumption in the toy industry in the future.